April 30, 2010

Some Pearls from the Sage of Omaha

Tomorrow is May 1st, and in some parts of the world, it is also labor day, and a day for laborers.  Nothing wrong with that.  But, the greatest wealth creation system in the world for workers is located in the USA, and tomorrow is a special day for them as well. And as many things American, it is BIG.  In fact, it  has already begun with well over 30,000 people from all over America (and some Canadians and internationals as well) traveling to Omaha. What is in Omaha? They say great steaks, but the main attraction is Warren Buffet - it is Berkshire's Annual Shareholders' Meeting, sometimes called the "Woodstock of Capitalism".

Some thoughts on Warren Buffet's letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway regarding the year 2009, sent out on February 26, 2010. Read the actual letter by visiting the link below... but for those who are short on time, we have highlighted a few points and placed an "Editor's Note" with an "EN" preface:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2009ltr.pdf


--------------------
"Our gain in net worth during 2009 was $21.8 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 19.8%. Over the last 45 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $84,487, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually"

EN: Although large and growing, it is more for the wisdom than the size that Buffet's words are listened to... and let's not forget his partner Charlie (Munger)
"We would rather suffer the visible costs of a few bad decisions than incur the many invisible costs that come from decisions made too slowly – or not at all – because of a stifling bureaucracy.
 The big minus is that our performance advantage has shrunk dramatically as our size has grown, an unpleasant trend that is certain to continue"

EN: In short, when you are becoming the market, it is harder and harder to out-perform the market...
"Long ago, Charlie laid out his strongest ambition: 'All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.' "

EN: Clever and funny too...
"We make no attempt to woo Wall Street. Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us. Instead we want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it’s one that follows policies with which they concur.

Additionally, we try to post our quarterly and annual financial information on the Internet early on weekends, thereby giving you and other investors plenty of time during a non-trading period to digest just what has happened at our multi-faceted enterprise."

EN: Clever, smart and considerate....

"Last year we saw, in one instance, how sound-bite reporting can go wrong. Among the 12,830 words in the annual letter was this sentence: “We are certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the market will rise or fall.” Many news organizations reported – indeed, blared – the first part of the sentence while making no mention whatsoever of its ending. I regard this as terrible journalism:"

EN:  The power (and ability to abuse) of the press... And then, Buffet comments on insurance operations:
"If we do so, our float will be cost-free, much as if someone deposited $62 billion with us that we could invest for our own benefit without the payment of interest.  Let me emphasize again that cost-free float is not a result to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: In most years, premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses."

EN:  This "cost-free float" was a powerful tool that allowed Buffet to leverage himself beyond the pack when the insurance industry was investing their premiums in low interest  instruments until they paid out their claims at a later date

"If Charlie, I and Ajit are ever in a sinking boat – and you can only save one of us – swim to Ajit."

EN:  Ajit is the gent in charge of larger insurance policies at Berkshire (for example he took over Lloyd's book in 2006 in a 7.1 Billion dollar  transaction). Insurance companies provide year-end float totaling: $61,911,000,000 (or almost 62 Billion dollars). Now, here is how Buffet summarizes their loss on marketing credit cards to their Geico customers:
"GEICO’s managers, it should be emphasized, were never enthusiastic about my idea. They warned me that instead of getting the cream of GEICO’s customers we would get the – – – – – well, let’s call it the non-cream. I subtly indicated that I was older and wiser. I was just older."

EN: On Regulated Utility Business:
"In earlier days, Charlie and I shunned capital-intensive businesses such as public utilities. Indeed, the best businesses, by far for owners, continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. We are fortunate to own a number of such businesses, and we would love to buy more."

EN: What would Hydro Quebec be worth? To continue, when talking about a loss making operation:
"Dave and I have the strongest possible personal interest in maintaining these standards because we and our families use NetJets for almost all of our flying, as do many of our directors and managers. None of us are assigned special planes nor crews. We receive exactly the same treatment as any other owner, meaning we pay the same prices as everyone else does when we are using our personal contracts. In short, we eat our own cooking. In the aviation business, no other testimonial means more.

We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend

When we report to you, we will continue to separate out these figures (as we do realized investment gains and losses) so that you can more clearly view the earnings of our operating businesses. We are delighted that we hold the derivatives contracts that we do. To date we have significantly profited from the float they provide."

EN:  Such a simple thing to provide transparency that Auditors and Regulators sometimes seem to work against....
"In my view a board of directors of a huge financial institution is derelict if it does not insist that its CEO bear full responsibility for risk control.

CEOs and, in many cases, directors have long benefitted from oversized financial carrots; some meaningful sticks now need to be part of their employment picture as well.

...but our blockbuster deal with BNSF required us to issue about 95,000 Berkshire shares that amounted to 6.1% of those previously outstanding. Charlie and I enjoy issuing Berkshire stock about as much as we relish prepping for a colonoscopy.

Going by the market value of their stock, they can afford to overpay because they are, in effect, using counterfeit money. Periodically, many air-for-assets acquisitions have taken place, the late 1960s having been a particularly obscene period for such chicanery.

When stock is the currency being contemplated in an acquisition and when directors are hearing from an advisor, it appears to me that there is only one way to get a rational and balanced discussion. Directors should hire a second advisor to make the case against the proposed acquisition, with its fee contingent on the deal not going through. Absent this drastic remedy, our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: 'Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.' "

EN: Our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.
"Naturally, our fellows caved in and agreed to this value-destroying deal. ' We need to show that we are in the hunt. Besides, it’s only a small deal,'  they said, as if only major harm to shareholders would have been a legitimate reason for holding back. Charlie’s reaction at the time: ' Are we supposed to applaud because the dog that fouls our lawn is a Chihuahua rather than a Saint Bernard? '

As always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m., and a new Berkshire movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. (Act fast; he can be terse.)"

EN:  For those of you who have attended a shareholders' meeting please note that they take questions before the formal part of the meeting.
"The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do that by filling the 194,300-squarefoot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. But you can do better. (A friendly warning: If I find sales are lagging, I get testy and lock the exits.)

Also available will be Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the story of my partner. This book is something of a publishing miracle – never advertised, yet year after year selling many thousands of copies from its Internet site. (Should you need to ship your book purchases, a nearby shipping service will be available.)

NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a Berkyville BBQ to which you are all invited.

At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 30th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 2nd, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m.

Last year we changed our method of determining what questions would be asked at the meeting and received many dozens of letters applauding the new arrangement. We will therefore again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail.

The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be e-mailed at cloomis@fortunemail.com; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com, and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at arsorkin@nytimes.com. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the dozen or so he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.)

At 86 and 79, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Indeed, over the years, our work has become ever more fascinating; no wonder we tap-dance to work. If pushed, we would gladly pay substantial sums to have our jobs (but don’t tell the Comp Committee).

Nothing, however, is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on May 1st at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We’ll see you there.

February 26, 2010

Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board
P.S. Come by rail."

--------------------

Let us know what you think, leave us a comment below


From the desk of Andre M.
At Andion Financial, we shape visions into reality
Copyright © Andion Financial 2010

April 26, 2010

What Kind of Loan is Right for You?

Andion does not issue loans, let's make that clear...

But that does not stop us from helping enterprising entrepreneurs (and their families) from getting the funding to grow their business. "I need a loan" are words that we often hear spoken (over 80% of our clients have spoken these words at some point!), but the loan they need are not always the same. Below are just a few of what we deal with:
  • Mortgage
  • 2nd mortgage
  • Small Business Loan (SBL)
  • BDC guaranteed working capital
  • Government sponsored youth programs
  • Lending against R&D expenditures
  • Advance against credit/debit card receipts
  • Private equity
  • Private Loan
  • Factoring
Apart from these, sometimes all a person ever needed was a payday advance. You try working if you are strapped for cash, while your truck is in the garage... would you rather pay the 60$ in fees and interest OR go and ask your bother-in-law... been there done that.. next.

Importance is not based on the amount for a borrower, but on need. Unfortunately, too many borrowers wait too long before seeking out assistance, and then it may be too late. Put it this way, if you were an insurance company, would you want to sell life insurance to a healthy, 6 foot, 180 pound, non-smoking male individual? Chances are you would, as the actuaries can figure out the risk and how to price the policy so that he gets the benefits he is looking for, at a price that is attractive to him, and at which the insurance company can make money.  It is called business, and when done properly, it is win/win situation.

Now, take the same healthy individual and the same insurance company, and then hypothetically, he fell into the water in the middle of lake Ontario. Also, he just happens to be a poor swimmer, and while treading the water, he pulls out his cell phone and calls the 1-800 number he remembers from the insurance ad... Would you, as the insurance company, still want to make this sale?  Now the game has changed, it all depends on different factors... there are currently more risks involved, and you might not have the relevant facts and time to make a proper assessment.

At Andion Financial, we often face the same time constraints and the same need for relevant information to make a proper assessment of our clients. They may have gone to their bank - but did not have all their paperwork in order; or they have gone to some other source (let's pick on accountants) but then the cost was a) too high up front, or b) there was no sense of urgency on the accountants part (it was tax season), or c) they may have done loan applications in the past but had not kept up with changes.  And folks, things at the banks do change.  You can love them or hate them, but it would be difficult to do business in this country without banks, so you should learn to get along with them.

Banks like things in a certain way:  they like to speak the "bankers' talk", walk the "bankers' walk", and do the "bankers' stuff".  That is why it is easier for us at Andion to put together the package that will get your situation and your story to the bankers, without the taste of Lake Ontario's water in anyone's mouth!!

P.S. Do the people in Toronto really drink that stuff?


Let us know what you think, leave us a comment below.



From the desk of Andre M. 
At Andion Financial, we shape visions into reality
Copyright © Andion Financial 2010

April 19, 2010

How Google Can Help Your Business


A million here and a million there and pretty soon you are talking about real money… (To paraphrase a certain US senator)

We spoke a couple of weeks ago about Google’s battle with China (link), and last week Google announced some pretty impressive results for its first quarter:

Revenue increased to $6.8 Billion, versus $5.5 Billion a year ago (23.6%)
Profits increased to $1.96 Billion, versus $1.42 Billion for the same period last year (36.1%)
Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) totaled 1.71 Billion dollars compared to $1.44 Billion (18.8%)

Please note we are not talking about investing in Google stock, but we are saying that you should take stock of what Google is doing, and most importantly, looking at some ways that it can help your business!

There is no doubt that Google is a leader.  The Pareto Principle is originally based on 80% of the land being owned by 20% of the population (see PFactor).  There is no doubt that this principle continues to have merit and shed insight when we look at the internet “real estate”.

In 2009, Google and Yahoo! combined accounted for over 85% of USA based searches in any given month.  So the top two got 85%, and the next ten got 15% of general searches.  Those are dominant numbers.

A search on Google leads us to a list of General search engines that are available.  These include:

Ask.com (formerly Ask Jeeves)
Baidu (Chinese, Japanese)
Bing (formerly MSN Search and Live Search)
Cuil
Duck Duck Go
Google
Kosmix
Sogou (Chinese)
Youdao (Chinese)
Yahoo! Search
Yandex (Russian)
Yebol

In addition there are many other search engines for categories where Google is not necessarily a leader.  These include:  Business, Jobs, Legal, Education, Medical and Mobile/Hand Held, to name a half dozen.

Google has also been busy rewriting its software to be able to come up with a suite to compete with Microsoft office, has introduced Buzz to compete in the Social Media area, and launched Android to compete in mobile devices. In fact, Google spent over $800 million dollars last quarter on Research and Development activities.  All these activities bear watching, and we may visit them in future articles, but for today we wish to focus on Google and how it can help your existing (or soon to be launched) business.

Books have been written on this topic, but we will be brief.

Why are they important?

Google is not growing by "poaching" market share from others, as they are too dominant already... so it is more people transacting more on the internet that is allowing for this growth.  We think that is good for the economy of the USA, Canada and the world, as it will lead to more effective markets.  It is a net wealth creator.

Because it is the tail and not the dog:  Google is basically an information exchange network.  People pay it for information via PPC (Pay Per Click).  You can call it advertising if you wish.  But it is fast, effective, and smart. And, we will be doing more of it, not less.

While 66% of Google’s revenues come from its own websites, Google’s support of its network revenues is critical for its continued success. (Growing Your Business)

By using Google’s AdSense programs, its partners generated $2.04 billion, or 30% of total revenues, in the first quarter of 2010. This represents a 24% increase from first quarter 2009 network revenues of $1.64 billion.  The Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) line item above totaled $1.71 Billion dollars.  That is, 80% of what Google made, it PAID OUT to its partners.

We do not know what Google paid out in Canada because Google confirmed to us that Canada is lumped into the 53% of International Revenue, as it is not greater than 10% of Google’s revenue.

But we do know that 99% of Google’s revenues are from advertising.

This is how Google describes its Adwords program:

Google AdWords is our automated online program that enables advertisers to place targeted text-based and display ads on our web sites and our Google Network members’ web sites. Display advertising typically includes static or animated images as well as interactive audio or video media, such as the banner ads on the tops or sides of many popular web sites. Most of our AdWords customers pay us on a cost-per-click basis, which means that an advertiser pays us only when a user clicks on one of its ads

Now let’s remember our PFactor rules (80/20) and assume that 80% of this revenue goes to the top 20% of the Partners.  That still leaves $340 million dollars per quarter or almost $115 million per month (and growing) that is available for you and us.

Why?  Because our sites can provide the content that users are searching for when they Google.
Do you have a product or service that more people could benefit from?
Do you want more clients?

Perhaps you should request our report: (Growing Your Business)
While we believe that our analysis to be fairly accurate, it is friendly and NOT a market recommendation…so please take stock of what Google is doing, and not stock in Google…

Let us know what you think, leave us a comment below.

From the desk of Andre M.
Copyright © Andion Financial 2010

April 12, 2010

My Buddy Went to See Jesse Cook...


My buddy Mr. TIM went to see Jesse Cooke (Wiki). He was not a big fan, but it was a present for his wife's birthday. While he was there sitting back and enjoying the show, he realized that Jesse was doing much more than performing... he was actually enjoying himself!

I reminded my buddy about of one of his client’s, who was accused of only hiring pretty girls. This client would just smile when he heard this claim. One day while at a meeting, he was confronted with a claim of sexism (?)!!!

So, Mr. TIM just explained that his HR person did the hiring.  He usually did not meet the candidates until a decision was made.  He was a “growling-type-of-guy”, so they did not want him to scare the candidates away.  Yet, the claim was still made....

This is what Mr. TIM explained:

- They need to have the basic skills (reading, writing and arithmetic).
- They need to be computer literate (he was a creature of the 80's when that was still an issue).
- They need to be able to multi-task.

AND they need to smile...

You see, when you smile - even a toothless, pudgy, bald person looks cute..... (I was describing a baby... not Mr. TIM).

Mr. TIM also realized that the people who were the best at multi-tasking, had often worked in the hospitality industry. This is where they learned to smile, even to rude customers... because it helped them earn tips - if not from the rude person, then from the people around!!!

Which brings us to a survey that I recently read (http://www.technomic.com), which states that the top three reasons that people did not return to restaurants were all service related...

This is an attitude issue folks, that begins at the front lines.

It does not matter how good the food is, or how creative the chef is... if the service sucks, most people will not come back ("Soup Nazi’s" are not the norm... that’s why he developed a cult following on Seinfeld)

So, did you give a smile today?

Well, smile or no smile, we have something for you....

Jesse was having so much fun at the concert, that he inspired my buddy to push me to offer this new product. The product is still in the Beta stage.

It will be launched early next year by an American client of ours, but they have agreed to let us Beta test it here!!

Its mission is not only to help you increase sales, but to do it in a way that will increase your profits as well as your NET WORTH!!!

I cannot say much more right now, but if you are in a service business (not corporate world), and that includes the food industry, and want to see if you qualify to be included in our Beta group, contact Michael at 450-688-7367, or email him at michael.deleon@andionfinancial.com. We will schedule you for a short 10 to 15 minute appointment to ask you 10 easy questions...

Once we have these answers, we will build you a customized profile that is guaranteed to increase your NET WORTH. Andre will then sit down with you for a friendly, no obligation chat, but you buy the coffee ;)



Remember, give a smile today…



From the desk of Andre M.
Copyright © Andion Financial 2010

April 05, 2010

Google Vs. China

The cover of Google’s annual report this year is of an over-sized “G” with parts of the “o” and the following “gle” also visible.  It gives the impression that GOOGLE is too big to fit on the sheet allotted to it.

Google has come a long way….it also reported net income of $6.5 Billion, on revenues just under $24 Billion.  Not too shabby from a company that most people had not heard of 10 years ago…

Google not only survived the Dot-Com bust, it has thrived!! Google borrowed a revenue model (PPC or pay per click advertising), with perhaps the best mass-market search algorithm on the planet.

And make no mistake, the planet is Google’s domain.

That is what makes the recent events over the last several weeks that much more dramatic. Google is involved in a massive tug of war with another entity that you would have heard about, called China Inc.  You see, China is much more than just another market, economy, or even a country.  It is a blend of state planning and market forces that defy easy characterization.

China was also affected by the global downturn, and while the USA (-2.5%), Canada (-2.5%), Japan (-5.3%), Euro Area (-3.9%) and Russia (-7.9%) all saw continued shrinkage in 2009 , China shrugged off the meltdown of the 2nd half of 2008, and posted GDP growth of 5.9% (source: The Economist).  While this is down from the 8 to 10% that we have now seen for decades, it is very impressive nonetheless

China marches to its own tune these days.  It has a growing economy.  Its population continues to grow richer.  It holds over $2,399.2 Billion U.S. Dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and this figure continues to grow.  In short, China has once again become a world power.

Google (which holds just over $24 Billion of cash and securities) began redirecting traffic to its uncensored Google.com.HK site last month. This happened after warning China in January that it was no longer willing to censor searches in China.  Google then accused some “China elements” of trying to hack into Chinese dissidents' Gmail accounts in February.  The implication was that the Chinese Government was involved, a charge that China strongly denied. Chinese officials are quoted as saying: "We are uncompromisingly opposed to the politicization of commercial issues, and express our discontent and indignation to Google for its unreasonable accusations and conducts."

Google has received criticism in the past for agreeing to censor Chinese search results by free speech advocates and flag waving Americans (some of who were worried about job losses to China). While reports are circulating that Google agrees to restrictions of one kind or another in 25% of the foreign markets that it serves, none had the profile and the political context of its battle with China.



Our take:

Google is right.  By standing up for itself (remember, they were being asked to, in essence, falsify their search results), they are protecting their brand and reputation for other markets.

China is also right.  Countries have the right to create laws and rules over their sovereign territory as long as they respect the international treaties that they choose to enter into (which in effect becomes rules in their countries).

How can they both be right?  Well, competition is a good thing.  And we are seeing competition at a very large scale.

Google will lose some market share in China for now (that is a given); China will help support competitive products (such as search engine rivals Bing and Baidu), BUT the Chinese people that do get to use Google will see that THEY ARE BEING CENSORED…until now, that was hidden from them by Google’s complicity in the charade.

This stand by Google will gain it credibility – within and outside China.  And while it may take some time to seep into the masses, it will get there as it is becoming more and more difficult to control information in a world where every cell phone is a communication device, which was only imagined in the days of STAR TREK (the original series, not the recent movie.)

Free speech, in its long and turbulent history, has been harassed, harangued, and persecuted. But it has survived, and we may just have witnessed a corporate citizen do some good, while adding to their long term world wide prospects.



This struggle is going to be long and complicated.  We would love to hear your thoughts and comments…




From the desk of Andre M.

Copyright © Andion Financial 2010